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Related: French leader meets Iran's Rouhani, demands 'concrete' nuclear steps
ReplyDeleteHeyer cautions that a return to growth doesn't mean France is rebounding.
"We can't talk about a recovery as long as economic growth is around 1 percent," he said. "Since today, we produce less than five years ago, we are still in recession. That's the real definition of a recession."
"The real rebound will be when we have a production level well above 2007 and when the economy has started to create jobs again. That's not in the government's scenario."
Still, Jacob Kirkegaard, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, says France has likely escaped the crisis without the explosions of unemployment and deep recessions seen in Southern Europe. But that also means it no longer has the motivation to make the real, deep reforms it also avoided.
"There's never going to be a hard landing. ... It's going to be a gradual underperformance," not only compared with Germany but also with traditionally weaker countries like Spain and Italy, he said.